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ExxonMobil: diesel will surpass gasoline as the number one global transportation fuel by 2020

Transportation fuel mix in millions of oil-equivalent barrels through 2020. Source: ExxonMobil Outlook. Click to enlarge.

Diesel will surpass gasoline as the number one transportation fuel worldwide by 2020 and continue to increase its share through 2040, according to ExxonMobil’s recently published . The relative shift away from motor gasoline to diesel is driven by improving light-duty vehicle fuel economy and the growth in commercial transportation activity. Diesel demand accounts for 70% of the growth in demand for all transportation fuels through the forecast period to 2040.

Fuel demand for heavy-duty vehicles, the largest subsector, sees the greatest growth, up 65%, and accounts for 40% of all transportation demand by 2040. About 80% of the growth in commercial transport demand will come from developing nations, according to the forecast. Fuel for aviation and marine will increase about 75% and 90%, respectively, over the Outlook period, with their combined share growing from about 20% today to more than 25% by 2040.

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Mix of the global vehicle fleet. Source: ExxonMobil Outlook. Click to enlarge.

By contrast, gasoline demand will be relatively flat, despite the doubling of the global personal vehicle fleet over the period from more than 800 million vehicles to more than 1.6 billion. As more energy-efficient vehicle options become available, conventional gasoline and diesel engine vehicles will make up a smaller share of the fleet over time, down to around 50% in 2040.

Around 2025, ExxonMobil expects hybrid vehicles will be less expensive and their share of sales will expand quickly, adding more efficiency to the fleet. Full hybrid vehicles will make up about 40% of the fleet in 2040—more than 50% of new car sales in 2040. In the latter part of the Outlook, electric and plug-in hybrids (utilizing a gasoline engine and battery-powered motor) will begin to play a more significant role, making up around 10% of new car sales in 2040, or about 5% of the fleet.

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